COVID-19 pandemic now reaches over a year and a half leading to
long term illness and death. Vaccines were created and introduced
early in 2021 as an effort to control the spread of COVID. Despite
this nobel quest, data allegedly from UK Patient database reveals
unexpectedly that those who were vaccinated where more likely to
catch covid than those not-vaccinated! Scientific AmeriKen suspects
there is a scientific explanation for this phenomonenon other than
the possibilty that vaccinations actually make one more susceptible
to infection! Data pictured on right shows that total cases are
higher in the vaccinated vs unvaccinated - and additional data (which
can't be found but ScientificAmeriKen remembers seeing) further
revealed this difference held up when normalized to the number of
vaccinated/unvaccinated individuals. Normalization is important
since vaccinated outnumber unvaccinated at least 2-1, and normalizing
rules out the possibility that vaccinated people get covid more
often simply because there are more of them. Here, Scientific AmeriKen
will test another possibility using marbles.
more or less assumes the two groups, vaccinated and unvaccinated,
are equivalent. Further, that the assumption is that both groups
blend together - however, this may not be true as those that are
vaccinated may be more likely to hang out others that are vaccinated
and vice-versa. This may lead to a situation where an infected vaccinated
person may be more likely to spread it to other vaccinated, thus
might explain why even normalized data shows they are infected more
often. Using marbles as the model - it is the hypothesis of this
experiment that drawing from unmixed marbles will skew towards the
majority compared to when drawing from well blended marbles.
test this hypothesis, 100 marbles will be placed into a bin. Initially
50 striped "Cats-eye" marbles and 50 solid colored marbles
will added and blended together. A handful will be grabbed and the
marbles in hand counted and then normalized (a total of 20 trials).
Next, the marbles will be used at 70 striped and 30 solid, as well
as 80 striped and 20 solid. Initially, the marbles are added and
blended together for 20 trials each. Then the marbles separated,
initially striped marbles are added, then the solid marbles are
added so that they stay together, and 20 more trials are performed.
Differences were compared using a Student's T-Test, with significance
being recognized at 0.05 or lower.
RESULTS: Data represent the mean of 20 trials per condition. P-values represent statistical comparisons between Blended and unmixed marbles
and Discussion: These data suggest that leaving the marbles unmixed
resulted in the majority being picked more often. However, it is
important to note that - "statistically" - there was not
difference between the groups. Perhaps to reach statistical significance,
Scientific AmeriKen would have to repeat this experiment a hundred
times over - so since the mean fits the hypothesis, ScientificAmeriKen
will just call it a win. Although the source data raises the possibilty
that vaccines increase susceptibilty to catching COVID, these data
do not rule out that possibility - and in all in all, every possibility
should be explored scientifically. However, this work here raises
the possibilty that if more vaccinated people catch covid it could
be due to non-immune system possibilities, like who people opt to
hang out with, urban versus rural lifestyles, or maybe vaccine people
think they are invincible and thus take more chances.
Additionally, finding data on whether vaccines prevent COVID infection
is also a difficult endeavor - the initial data seem to suggest
more vaccinated individuals are catching covid, however, as pictured
on right, data from the government source reveal from the start
of the pandemic, far more non-vaccinated have caught covid.
The initial data however, is a far more recent snap shot, whereas
it is unclear if the government data includes people infected before
a vaccine was even available - plus, the more recent data may give
a better snap shot of the Delta Variant, which the vaccines may
not protect against as well. All together, COVID is a complicated
disease, both biologically and politically.
Click here to download the raw data for this experiment!